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Sichuan COSMOS Precision Mold & Die Co., Ltd
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In 2020, the scale of mold industry will reach 218.8 billion yuan, and the export prospect of China's mold industry will be better
一、 Analysis of the development status of mold industry
1. Development course of mould manufacturing industry in China After more than half a century's development, China's mold industry has been greatly improved, and its development speed is very fast. Generally speaking, the development of mold design and manufacturing technology in China has experienced the embryonic stage of manual workshop manufacturing, the rapid development of industrial production, the stage of product competition and the stage of brand competition of modern production.
The embryonic stage was from the 1950s to the mid-1970s. Due to the influence of social economic and political development, China's mold manufacturing develops slowly at this stage. Most of the mold manufacturing is attached to an accessory processing workshop of the enterprise, and the mold manufacturing enterprises are less and the output is low. The type of mold products is relatively single, and the relationship between supply and demand is in an unreasonable state of confusion.
The rapid development stage is from the early 1980s to the mid 1990s. At this stage, China began to implement the policy of reform and opening up, domestic mold manufacturing enterprises began to introduce advanced production equipment and scientific management concepts from abroad, and developed a batch of new mold steel suitable for China's national conditions. The output and production technology of the mould have been greatly improved, and the whole industry has entered the stage of rapid development.
The stage of product competition is from the mid-1990s to the beginning of the 21st century. At this stage, under the guidance of consumer demand, the update of mold products is accelerated. Foreign mold enterprises with technical advantages began to crowd into the domestic mold Market and seize market share. At the same time, small and medium-sized enterprises imitate each other, the product homogeneity is serious, and the competition is increasingly fierce.
The stage of brand competition is from the beginning of the 21st century to now. The layout of foreign investment in the domestic mold market has intensified the overall market competition. Some powerful manufacturers began to pay attention to brand publicity, product innovation, service improvement and channel terminal construction, and gradually develop the medium and high-end mold market. In addition, the downstream market presents diversified needs, and the downstream customers' awareness of the brand is gradually improved. China's mold manufacturing industry has entered a new stage of brand competition.
2. Total mould sales in China
In China, more and more people have realized the important position of mold in manufacturing, and the level of mold technology has become an important symbol to measure the level of a country's manufacturing industry, and to a large extent determines the product quality, efficiency and the development ability of new products. Many mould enterprises attach great importance to technological development and increase investment for technological progress, which is regarded as an important driving force for enterprise development.
In recent years, with the development of automobile industry with a growth rate of more than 20%, the number of mould enterprises and products entering the automobile field has increased significantly compared with the previous year. Automobile enterprises also put forward higher requirements for the quality of mould products, which urges mould enterprises to speed up the improvement and constantly improve the level. At the same time, due to the substantial growth of mold export, it also greatly promoted the improvement of mold level.
According to the data from the National Bureau of statistics, the total industrial output value of China's mold industry has increased from 136.731 billion yuan in 2010 to 240091 billion yuan in 2016.
Change trend of industrial output value of mold industry in 2010-2017
Source: public data sorting Relevant report: Research Report on market supply and demand forecast and investment strategy of China's mould industry in 2019-2025 issued by Zhiyan consulting network
However, during 2010-2016, China's mold production fluctuated. In 2016, China's mold output was about 17.23 million sets, a decrease of 0.5% over the same period of last year.
Change trend of mold output in 2010-2017 (unit: 10000 sets,%)
Source: public data sorting
According to the data, there are about 30000 mold manufacturing sites in China, with about 1 million employees. In 2015, the total sales volume of molds in China was about 171.8 billion yuan, and the output value of molds used by enterprises was about 40 billion yuan. By 2016, the total sales of molds in China had reached 180 billion yuan. From 2013 to 2015, the annual compound growth rate of China's total mould sales reached 6.1%. It is estimated that the total sales of moulds in 2018 will be close to 200 billion yuan, and the total sales of moulds in 2020 will be 218.8 billion yuan.
The trend of China's total mould sales in 2013-2020
Source: public data sorting
China, the United States, Japan, Germany, South Korea and Italy are the world's major injection mold and stamping mold producers, of which China's mold output value is the largest in the world. Comparative analysis of the mold Market Distribution in the world's major mold manufacturing countries shows that the mold demand in the automobile industry is the largest, accounting for about 34%; the demand in the electronic industry accounts for about 28%; the demand in the IT industry accounts for about 12%; the demand in the home appliance industry accounts for about 9%; the demand in the OA automation industry accounts for about 4%; the demand in the semiconductor industry accounts for about 4%; and the demand in other industries accounts for about 9%.
Distribution of mould application industry in the world
Source: public data sorting
In 2008-2011, plastic mold accounted for the largest proportion of mold sales, accounting for about 45%; stamping mold accounted for about 37%; casting mold accounted for about 9%; other types of mold accounted for about 9%.
Proportion of mould sales by category
Source: public data sorting
2、 Five development trends of China's mould industry and good export prospects
At present, the trade market of China's plastic mold industry is developing rapidly, showing a trend of 15% - 20% growth rate every year. The arrival of industry 4.0 in 2015 will push the development of China's plastic mold industry to a new height. It is conservatively estimated that by 2018, the sales revenue of China's plastic mold industry will reach about 135.7 billion yuan with a growth rate of 13%. By 2023, the sales revenue of China's plastic mold industry will be close to 228.1 billion yuan. Forecast of sales revenue trend of China's plastic mold industry in 2018-2023
Sales revenue forecast of China's plastic mold industry in 2018-2023
Source: public data sorting
Mold industry is still promising, because it is the two cores of manufacturing industry after all, especially when the two cores start to merge into one core, another golden age is coming! Even though it's really depressed and difficult, we can't deny this industry! Especially in such a basic industry.
1. Acceleration of mechanism transformation and rationalization of structure
In order to adapt to the situation, China's mold industry has accelerated the pace of system reform and mechanism transformation in recent years, "three capital" and private enterprises have occupied the leading position in the industry, equipment level and product level have been greatly improved, and management has made great progress. Many enterprises have applied CAD / CAM / CAE integration technology, 3D design technology, ERP and IM3 information management technology, as well as high-speed processing, rapid prototyping, virtual simulation and network technology. More and more enterprises have passed various quality system certification year by year.
2. Economies of scale and rapid development of clusters
In recent years, the scale effect has been paid more and more attention while the specialization of "small and specialized" is developing. In addition to making the enterprise stronger and bigger, and making the scale economy produce benefits, the mold cluster production also shows its advantages constantly, so various cluster production forms such as "mold city", "mold Park", "mold production base" develop rapidly in the whole country. At present, there are more than 40 enterprises with an annual output of more than 100 million yuan, more than 200 enterprises with an annual output of more than 30 million yuan, and nearly 50 "mould cities (parks)" with certain influence. The construction of these mold agglomeration production bases has played a positive role in promoting the development of China's mold industry.
3. Pay attention to brand patent, strengthen innovation and research and development
Many enterprises begin to realize the importance of "brand" and "patent", and the investment strength and ability of independent innovation continue to improve. For a long time, molds have been in the "rear" and "passive" position, so there are few "brands" and "patents". With the development of market economy, enterprises pay more and more attention to "brand" and "patent" in recent years. Some enterprises have realized the importance of innovation and R & D, and their investment has increased rapidly. According to the information of China mould industry association, in recent years, many enterprises' investment and sales revenue in innovation and R & D have reached about 5%, and even 8% to 10% in some enterprises.
4. High and new technology is popular, mold talents are in short supply
With the rapid pace of structural adjustment of China's mold industry, mold development tends to be more and more large-scale and precise. In the first mock exam, the mold parts are becoming larger and larger and the mold is becoming more and more large for the development of the production efficiency. On the other hand, the rapid development of electronic information industry and medicine has brought about miniaturization and precision of parts, and the machining accuracy of some molds is below 1 m.
With the continuous improvement of mold technology, more and more molds belong to high-tech products. With the development of high and new technology, more and more mold manufacturing enterprises are recognized as high and new technology enterprises by the relevant departments of governments at all levels. According to the preliminary statistics of China mould association, there are 7 national high-tech enterprises in mould industry, and nearly 100 provincial and municipal high-tech enterprises.
Talent shortage is becoming increasingly prominent. Although in recent years, the mold industry in China has developed rapidly, estimated to have reached nearly one million people, but still can not keep up with the needs of industry development. First, the total amount is insufficient, and second, the quality is not enough to meet the needs of industry development. According to the survey, there is a gap of 300000-500000 employees in the mold industry in China, of which 20% are engineers and technicians. At present, high-quality and high-level mold enterprise managers, middle and high-level technicians and senior technical workers are especially in short supply.
5. The foreign trade deficit increases and the export prospect is promising
Although China's mold industry has entered the fast lane of development, it still has a large gap compared with the international level and advanced industrial countries in terms of accuracy, life, manufacturing cycle and capacity, so it can not meet the needs of China's manufacturing industry development. Especially in the precision, large, complex, long-life mold, still in short supply. Therefore, a large number of imports are needed every year.
The dependence on foreign investment is increasing year by year. Six years after China's accession to the WTO, foreign trade has developed rapidly, and the dependence of China's economy on foreign trade has increased from 30% to 70%. At the same time, in recent years, it is the time when a large number of foreign investment has entered China. With the continuous expansion and deepening of the opening-up policy, foreign investment in China's mold industry is also increasing, resulting in the increasing dependence on foreign investment. For example, Guangdong Province is the largest mold Province in China, and its production capacity accounts for about 40% of the country. In the mold production capacity of the province, foreign enterprises have accounted for about 60% and joint ventures about 10%. The export of molds in this province accounts for about 50% of the whole country, among which the export from foreign capital and joint ventures accounts for the majority. A large dependence on foreign investment and foreign trade will have a significant impact on the industry security and even the economic security of the whole country.